Two-thirds of US shoppers plan to start before Black Friday. Here’s how smart brands are getting ahead of BFCM 2025.
Everyone says BFCM starts in November.
Reality check: the brands that win Q4 started in September.
While your competitors are still “planning their sale,” the best operators are already:
- Testing flows
- Segmenting audiences
- Pre-loading offers
- Dialing in metrics like repeat purchase rate and revenue per email
Quick insight: Q4 shoppers are hunting for value, not novelty
McKinsey’s ConsumerWise survey found that two-thirds of US consumers plan to start their holiday shopping before Black Friday.
They’re not waiting for a deal. They’re looking for one now.
And they’re shifting spending from nice-to-have to must-have. McKinsey expects spending to move toward needed goods and away from discretionary ones, with gift cards the top planned purchase.
The pre-BFCM playbook
Here’s what we recommend to get ahead and make Q4 your best yet.
1. Test your flows before it’s too late
Don’t wait until mid-November to find out your welcome or sales series isn’t converting.
Audit your flows today:
- Opt-in, welcome, browse abandon, cart abandon, post-purchase
- Check deliverability and load speed, and A/B test your top CTAs
- Run a warm-up campaign to re-engage cold segments before the Q4 noise hits
One of our clients had relied almost entirely on paid search, paid social and TV, and had never touched their email list. When we helped them segment their existing contacts by project type, lead status, and high-value vs. first-time buyers, then launched a “Best Sale of the Year” campaign with a post-quote follow-up series, things changed fast. No new ad spend, just smarter communication with the right audiences already in their database.
2. Segment by behavior, not guesswork
The one-size-fits-all blast is dead.
Smart brands are slicing by:
- AOV tier (high-value vs. first-time buyers)
- Lifecycle stage (engaged, lapsed, VIP)
- Behavioral triggers (views, clicks or last purchase timing)
This lets you tailor offer depth and urgency without margin panic.
3. Plan offers that tell a story
Consumers are planning ahead, but they still want reasons to act now.
Stack your offer calendar like this:
- October: “Early Access” or loyalty exclusives
- Mid-November: “Price Guarantee” or “Best Deal of the Season”
- BFCM weekend: tiered urgency (buy X, get Y, or free shipping thresholds)
- Post-BFCM: a “Restock Your Favorites” retention push
Tip: McKinsey points out the flip side of early shopping: shoppers worry a better deal will come later. Counter it with a price-match promise.
4. Focus on value and experience
With inflation driving cautious spending, your positioning matters.
Instead of “Buy more,” lead with:
“Here’s how to get the most from what you already love.”
UGC, bundles and loyalty perks can carry more weight than deep discounts, especially with millennials, where McKinsey sees the strongest shift toward August to October holiday spending.
Quick wins to do this week
- Run a flow audit: fix broken triggers or gaps in your lifecycle emails.
- Add segmentation tags: track AOV and engagement before launch.
- Test early promos: try “Early Bird” or “VIP Access” campaigns in October.
- Simplify analytics: track revenue per email and repeat purchase rate. They’re your truest retention KPIs.
For another example of what early email work can do, see how a different client, a landscape supply retailer, took email from zero to about 8% of revenue.
Final thought
Black Friday doesn’t create success. It reveals preparation.
If you want a record-breaking Q4, your testing window is right now, not when everyone else wakes up.
Want a second set of eyes on your flows before the rush? See how we run email marketing, or request an Opportunity Review and we’ll look at where your list is leaving revenue on the table.
Let’s scale smarter,
Iulia